Florida likely to get short break from storm threats

Rees Redirect: Get the latest storm updates from Ken Kaye. SunSentinel.com/stormcenter

Florida is probably safe from a hurricane hit over the next couple of weeks, thanks to the same atmospheric conditions that mangled Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian.

Both systems were done in by strong wind shear, dry air and cooler ocean temperatures. Although Dorian briefly looked like it might regenerate on Monday, chances of that are quickly diminishing.

The same hostile conditions might remain in place until mid-August. But experts say they likely won't persist long enough to dampen the heart of the season, which starts in mid-August and continues through October.

"These weather systems are transient," warned meteorologist Robert Molleda.

Although most of Dorian's remnants are expected to remain offshore, the system still could bring some heavy rain to South and Central Florida, mainly on Thursday. The rain chance has been increased to 50 to 60 percent on that day, the National Weather Service said.

"We're assuming some of the moisture will be close to us," Molleda said.

Wind shear and dry air commonly disrupt tropical systems that wander into the western Atlantic in July. But there's no guarantee of that later on.

"It's normal for conditions in July to be less favorable than in August or September," said James Franklin, top hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

For now, forecast teams say the hurricane season could be extremely busy because they expect winds and moisture levels over the tropical Atlantic to become more conducive for storm development.

As evidence those conditions already are starting to gel, both Chantal and Dorian emerged in the eastern Atlantic, which is normally too unsettled for storms to develop in July.

"The fact that they formed there at all in July, even though they didn't last long, suggests that when we hit the peak months, things could be very favorable for development," said Stanley Goldenberg, a research meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

On the other hand, some atmospheric factors could suppress systems, mainly dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures, said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University climatologist.

"There are a lot of mixed signals out there," he said.

Klotzbach and William Gray, who in June predicted 18 named storms, including nine hurricanes, will update their seasonal forecast on Friday. NOAA, which called for up to 20 named storms, including up to 11 hurricanes, will update its outlook on Aug. 8.

After emerging last week, Dorian survived less than three days. On Monday, its remnants, near Puerto Rico, were given a 30 percent chance of redeveloping.

"The primary impediment to development is the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure to its west," said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist of Weather Underground, the online weather site. "Strong upper-level southwesterly winds associated with this trough are creating moderate wind shear and driving dry air into the west side of ex-Dorian."

kkaye@tribune.com or 954-572-2085.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Hurricane/~3/P6HVLGPfv2c/fl-dorian-tuesday-20130729,0,3311291.story

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